Nifty closed positive 1st time after 3rd Nov.2013 on lower CAD estimates by Mr.R Rajan

    Guidance on lower CAD at around $56 Billions this year by the Governor Mr.R. Rajan yesterday, pulled Indian markets to close with a positive note after getting beaten 7 sessions consecutively. 

    Nifty closed positive for the first time after 3rd Nov.2013. Nifty opened with a gap up and touched a high of 6101.65 but inflation data impacted and reduced the gains. Nifty closed at 6056.15 adding 66.55 points to it's last closing, 5989.60. Sensex gained 199.04 points to settle at 20393.44. 

    All the sectoral indices gained today except CNX Pharma Index.CNX Auto was the top gainer by 3% followed by Banknifty, CNXRealty, CNX PSUBanks, CNX Infra & CNX Finance which rose by more than 2%. CNX pharma was down by 0.76%.

In Nifty50 stocks, Axisbank was the top gainer by 6.06% rise which closed at 1093.05. CoalIndia was the top loser by 3.54%, closed at 275. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Tatasteel by the  traded value today on NSE.

    October WPI inflation rose to 7 percent, from September's 6.46 percent. Meanwhile, the August WPI inflation has been revised upwards to 6.99 percent from a provisional figure of 6.1 percent, following which bond yields moved up.   The October number is at its highest level since February. 

Onions continue to cause the largest dent even though food articles inflation came off to 18.19 percent from 18.40 percent in the previous month. 

    Manufacturing products, which occupy largest share in the inflationary basket, jumped to 2.50 percent versus 2.03 percent month-on-month. While non-food articles index moved down slightly, the core inflation rose to 2.6 percent from 

2.1 percent in the previous month.

Nifty Outlook :

As stated into earlier blog, breaching a level of 6160 was considered negative for a short term and we have seen more than 5% fall from it's highest closing of 6317.35 to yesterday's closing of 5989.6.

Now 5900 to 5890 will be considered as a good support level if market wants to sustain in the bull run.Again 6170-6190 would be major resistance zone to sustain above.

Important Support : 5970 / 5910

Important Resistance : 6140 / 6190

Report of the meeting held on 13th Nov.2013 by Mr.R.Rajan
MUMBAI: Seeking to calm currency markets, the Reserve Bank today said the current account deficit in 2013-14 will be $ 56 billion-- much lower than the quantum projected earlier-- and there is no fundamental reason for rupee depreciation. "Our estimates now is that CAD this year will be $ 56 billion, less than 3 per cent of GDP and $ 32 billion less than last year.... Of course, some of that compression comes of our strong measures to curb gold import," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said at a hurriedly called press conference.
The current account deficit (CAD), which is the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign exchange, touched an all-time high of $ 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of the GDP in 2012-13. Earlier, the government had projected the CAD in the current fiscal at $ 70 billion, which was revised downwards to $ 60 billion by Finance Minister P Chidambaram on back of declining gold imports and recovery in exports. Referring to the recent decline in the value of rupee, the RBI chief said there is "no fundamental reason for volatility in the exchange rate". 
Continuing its slide for the sixth straight day, the rupee lost 17 paise to trade at a fresh two-month low of 63.88 in early trade on strong dollar demand from importers.
Rajan further said RBI was weighing various options to contain exchange rate volatility and would come out with 'appropriate' steps in the future.