Friday, June 21, 2013

No more panic after yesterday's turmoil

Today, volatile market sustained above yesterday's closing and evade the panic. Indian equities edged higher on Friday after earlier hitting a two-month low yesterday; as exporters such as Infy advanced on hopes a record low rupee would improve overseas earnings and helping indexes end a tough week on a brighter note. Broad-based Nifty added  just 11.8 points and ended at 5667.7. The Sentive index, Sensex ended at 18761.22 with a marginal gain of 41.93 points.
Among NSE Sectoral Indices, CNX IT was the major gainer by 1.46% whereas CNX PSU Bank Index fell the most by 1.96%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Indusing Bank gained the most by 3.95% and ended at 467.  Jindalsteel was the top loser as it corrected 7.79% and ended at 204.65.
Bankbaroda, BHEL, DLF, Gail, Jindalstel, JPAssociat, PNB, Ranbaxy & Sesagoa hit the 52wk low today.
Advance/Decline ratio was negative at 2.04 : 1 as 625 stocks declined and 307 stocks gained today on NSE.

Yesterday, the Rupee slipped to a record low of 59.98, triggering sell-offs in the bond and equity markets as the chairman of US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke signaled a tapering of its monetary stimulus which also spooked stocks,currencies,bonds and commodities globally.
As a result, we have seen the global meltdown triggered by indications that the US Fed may stop the monthly infusion of $85 billion through bond buyback,popularly called QE 3 and a weak Chinese manufacturing data as also the fall of the Rupee led to a 526 points slide in the Sensex yesterday, the biggest single day loss in 21 months. Yesterday,  it was Rs 2,100 crore net selling by FIIs in Indain Equities and made Dalal Street the Laal(Red). Similarly,the Rupee also closed at its all time low of 59.56 against the US$. In addition, trading in the government bonds market was also suspended for an hour because of a bond price crash,a rare incident. Yields on the 10-year bond rose by 12 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India managed to stave-off a bigger crisis by preventing the currency from crossing the psychologically sensitive barrier of 60 against the dollar and restricting the exchange rate to 59.56 at close through persistent dollar sales in the market but while the 60 level has been protected, markets are far from assured as RBIs forex reserves of $290bn are just enough to cover seven months of imports. Efforts by policy makers,economic advisor to the PMO Raghuram Rajan and Planning Commission chief Montek Singh Ahluwalia to talk up the Rupee also didn't yield much results. But today The rupee recovered against the dollar on Friday as dealers adjusted their positions following sale of the US currency by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in support of the Indian currency on Thursday.
“The RBI came in strongly to protect the rupee from falling below 60 per dollar yesterday (on Thursday) and that has clearly drawn the line for the market. Also, there have been positive comments from the finance ministry and RBI since morning which has nudged banks to cut their long dollar positions. We expect exporters to also sell dollars at these levels,” said a dealer with a private bank. RBI deputy governor H.R.Khan said Friday the central bank “will take steps if necessary” on the rupee, adding that both RBI and the government were “watching the rupee.” Finance minister, P.Chidambaram also said that the government and RBI are watching the “rupee, market situation.” “Government is not happy with the rupee situation. RBI will take necessary actions on the rupee,” Chidambaram said.These comments have soothed the market, which now expects the rupee will find support from the central bank if needed. At 3.10pm the rupee was at 59.30 to the dollar, up 0.47% from Thursday’s record close of 59.58. It rose to 59.14 per dollar earlier on Friday after opening at 59.77.
Nifty Outlook : 
As said earlier, any bounce back towards 5900 would be considered as to ease long positions, Nifty made a high of 5867.4 on Tue. but could not sustained at higher levels. Now 5640 (in Fut. & 5610 in spot) is the last supportive trend level and any sustainable closings below such level will make the market bearish for the short term.

Immediate Support : 5640 / 5610
Immediate Resistance : 5690 / 5770 

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