Biggest single session rally of 2013, convinced investors

Sensex jumped 486.24 points and ended at 19362.19 while broadbased Nifty rallied whopping 146.45 points' and ended at 5828.8. This is the biggest single day rally in 2013 for Indian equity market. The Sensex regained the psychological 19k mark while the Nifty reclaimed to sustain above 5800 level. Optimism that Fed will not rush to rein in its stimulus measures fuelled a rally in global markets especially Asian bourses. Sentiment was also boosted as the INR gained on Friday, further retreating from a record low hit on Wednesday. The Govt.'s push to raise gas prices heaved prospects for more fiscal and economic  even though shares in energy companies closed off the day's high.
All the sectoral indices on NSE gained toaday. CNX Metal gained the most by 4.3% followed by CNX Infra(3.99%), CNX PSE(3.9%), CNX Energy(3.76%), CNX Finance(3.65%), CNX Realty(3.58%), CNX BankNifty(3.4%), CNX Commodities(3.16%) and CNX Auto(3.06%) which gained more than 3% today.
In Nifty50 stocks, just 3 stocks ended into red territory. Jindalstel was the top gainer by 7.4% and HCLTech was the top loser by 2.81%.

Nifty Outlook : 

First three days of the week, spot Nifty broke the short term bullish trend and closed below that. It indicates the weakness on the shorter term subject to trade below 5860-5870 levels. So, triggering 5870 level, the short term bears could be trapped as volumes in Nifty Fut rose about 32.66% to the last week on weekly chart.

Immediate Support (For Jul Fut) : 5810 / 5770
Immediate Resistance : 5877 / 5965

No more panic after yesterday's turmoil

Today, volatile market sustained above yesterday's closing and evade the panic. Indian equities edged higher on Friday after earlier hitting a two-month low yesterday; as exporters such as Infy advanced on hopes a record low rupee would improve overseas earnings and helping indexes end a tough week on a brighter note. Broad-based Nifty added  just 11.8 points and ended at 5667.7. The Sentive index, Sensex ended at 18761.22 with a marginal gain of 41.93 points.
Among NSE Sectoral Indices, CNX IT was the major gainer by 1.46% whereas CNX PSU Bank Index fell the most by 1.96%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Indusing Bank gained the most by 3.95% and ended at 467.  Jindalsteel was the top loser as it corrected 7.79% and ended at 204.65.
Bankbaroda, BHEL, DLF, Gail, Jindalstel, JPAssociat, PNB, Ranbaxy & Sesagoa hit the 52wk low today.
Advance/Decline ratio was negative at 2.04 : 1 as 625 stocks declined and 307 stocks gained today on NSE.

Yesterday, the Rupee slipped to a record low of 59.98, triggering sell-offs in the bond and equity markets as the chairman of US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke signaled a tapering of its monetary stimulus which also spooked stocks,currencies,bonds and commodities globally.
As a result, we have seen the global meltdown triggered by indications that the US Fed may stop the monthly infusion of $85 billion through bond buyback,popularly called QE 3 and a weak Chinese manufacturing data as also the fall of the Rupee led to a 526 points slide in the Sensex yesterday, the biggest single day loss in 21 months. Yesterday,  it was Rs 2,100 crore net selling by FIIs in Indain Equities and made Dalal Street the Laal(Red). Similarly,the Rupee also closed at its all time low of 59.56 against the US$. In addition, trading in the government bonds market was also suspended for an hour because of a bond price crash,a rare incident. Yields on the 10-year bond rose by 12 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India managed to stave-off a bigger crisis by preventing the currency from crossing the psychologically sensitive barrier of 60 against the dollar and restricting the exchange rate to 59.56 at close through persistent dollar sales in the market but while the 60 level has been protected, markets are far from assured as RBIs forex reserves of $290bn are just enough to cover seven months of imports. Efforts by policy makers,economic advisor to the PMO Raghuram Rajan and Planning Commission chief Montek Singh Ahluwalia to talk up the Rupee also didn't yield much results. But today The rupee recovered against the dollar on Friday as dealers adjusted their positions following sale of the US currency by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in support of the Indian currency on Thursday.

“The RBI came in strongly to protect the rupee from falling below 60 per dollar yesterday (on Thursday) and that has clearly drawn the line for the market. Also, there have been positive comments from the finance ministry and RBI since morning which has nudged banks to cut their long dollar positions. We expect exporters to also sell dollars at these levels,” said a dealer with a private bank. RBI deputy governor H.R.Khan said Friday the central bank “will take steps if necessary” on the rupee, adding that both RBI and the government were “watching the rupee.” Finance minister, P.Chidambaram also said that the government and RBI are watching the “rupee, market situation.” “Government is not happy with the rupee situation. RBI will take necessary actions on the rupee,” Chidambaram said.These comments have soothed the market, which now expects the rupee will find support from the central bank if needed. At 3.10pm the rupee was at 59.30 to the dollar, up 0.47% from Thursday’s record close of 59.58. It rose to 59.14 per dollar earlier on Friday after opening at 59.77.

Nifty Outlook : 

As said earlier, any bounce back towards 5900 would be considered as to ease long positions, Nifty made a high of 5867.4 on Tue. but could not sustained at higher levels. Now 5640 (in Fut. & 5610 in spot) is the last supportive trend level and any sustainable closings below such level will make the market bearish for the short term.

Immediate Support : 5640 / 5610
Immediate Resistance : 5690 / 5770 

Market gave smart bounceback. Nifty ended above 5800 & Sensex above 19k mark

Eyeing on RBI Credit Policy which will be announced on Monday,17th, market gave a smart bounceback supported by supported by positive global markets. Nifty gained 106.2 points and ended at 5805.3(1.86%) and Sensex gained by 352.62 points and ended at 19179.78.
All the NSE Sectoral Indices closed in positive.CNX Metal Index was the major gainer by 2.85% followed by CNX Auto(2.69%), CNX Realty(2.32%), CNX Commodities(2.26%), CNX Energy(2.26%), CNX Finance(2.23%) and CNX Infra(2.18%).
In Nifty50 stocks, Hindalco gained the most by 8.47% and ended at 105 whereas Indusingbk was the top loser by 1.47% which ended at 481.6.
Advance / Decline ratio was positive 2.63 : 1 as 637 stocks gained and 242 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As described in previous blog, after breaking 5885 level, Nifty Fut. collapsed to 5692.25 yesterday.Considering the RBI policy on Monday, 17th June, market may show abnormal volatility. Bounce back upto 5940 would be considered as a relief rally for the long punters.

Immediate Support : 5775 / 5690
Immediate Resistance : 5880 / 5940

Nifty below 5900 and Sensex below 19500.

Weak global indices dragged Indian market to its' week low. Nifty ended at 5885.75 with 35.65 points down and Sensex dropped 71.9 points to end at 19447.59. 
As said earlier, closing below 6140 level will break short term upward-trend and may test 5890 level; accordingly, Nifty Fut. has tested 5890 thrice in this week. Among NSE Sectoral Indices, PSU Bank's index was the top loser by 2% whereas CNX IT & CNX Pharma were the only gainers. CNX IT gained the most by 1.42%. In Nifty50 stocks, TCS was the top gainer by 3.35% gain and ended at 1520. Axisbank was the top loser by 3.26% , ended at 1371.9. Rcom was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Axisbank by the traded value on NSE today.
Advance/Decline Ratio was negative as 730 stocks declined and 564 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As predicted into last week's outlook for Nifty Fut., it has not crossed 6140 and which was needed to intact the short-term upward trend and hence we have seen testing of 5890 level for three consecutive days. Considering this, Nifty Fut. has an important support around this level(5885-5890) and said earlier, any breach of the level on the closing basis for the two consecutive sessions may lead Nifty Fut. to 5770 which is also 61.8% retracement from a recent low and recent high i.e. 5480.3 to 6239 tested on 10 Apr'13 and 20 May'13 respectively. Upside upto 6040-6050 possible if it will show the strength to cross and sustain above 5990 level.

Immediate Support : 5870
Immediate Resistance : 5990 / 6040