Calm before a twister ?

After nearly 6200 points' volatility in last couple of months, market remained lackluster this week. Today, Sensex closed at 19710.04 with 183.81 points down and Nifty closed at 5833.20, down by 49.05 points.
Among CNX Sectoral Indices, just three were into positive and CNX IT gained the most by just 0.12%. Top loser was CNX PSU Bank index by the 2.08%. In Nifty50 stocks, BPCL was the top gainer by 6.03% and closed at 327.85 and BHEL was the top loser by 5.61% which closed at 142.3. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and McDowell-n by the traded value. Advance/Decline ratio was negative as 646 stocks turned to red and 520 were in green territory.

Nifty Outlook :

As stated in last week's blog, Nifty corrected nearly 2% after breaking the support level of 5930. Now we must consider the chances to test 5680 and 5460 levels in worst scenario if Nifty could not hold and sustain above 5770. Second quarter results will decide the trend more specifically in coming weeks.
Important Support : 5770
Important Resistance : 5995

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RBI hiked REPO Rate by 0.25%.. RBI governership not meant to win Facebook likes..said Rajan. Nifty managed to close above 6000 mark on weekly basis

20th Sep.2013

Sell off ignited by Mr.Rajan through his debut monetary policy announced today. The central bank has hiked repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 percent, but the bank left cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4 percent though the minimum CRR requirement is cut from 99 percent to 95 percent. A very volatile session witnessed more than 600 points' nose down into Sensex after policy announcement and recovered 200 points in the last session. Nifty lost 103.45 points and maintained to close above 6000 mark at 6012.1 and Sensex closed at 20263.71, down by 382.93  points.

All sectoral indices on NSE closed into negative except CNX Pharma which gained 0.2%. CNX Realty was the biggest loser by 7.47% followed by CNX PSU Banks (4.35%) and Banknifty (4.14%).

In Nifty50 stocks, Relinfra was the top gainer by 5.16%, closed at 417.75 whereas DLF tumbled the most by 11.99 and closed at 150.85.

JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and HDFC by the traded value on NSE. Advance/Decline ratio was negative at 2.41 : 1 as 626 stocks declined and 260 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

In this week, Nifty traveled from 5798.15 to 6142.5 because of two major events one is international and another is domestic. India Volatility Index rose from 4.78% to 11.52% in a less than a week.(Today's data not considered). So there is a bigger room to play on the bourses. Nifty likely to wander in between 5700 level to 6230 with a buy in dip attitude subject to close above 5930 targeting new high.

Imortant support :  5930

Important resistance : 6090/6145

What is MSF(Marginal Standing Facility) ?

It is the rate at which scheduled banks could borrow funds overnight from the RBI against approved Govt securities. Now since today which is reduced by 0.75%  and the minimum daily CRR balance that banks have to maintain to 95% of the requirement.

Perfectly spoken by the Governor:

“Some of the actions I take will not be popular. The Governorship of the central bank is not meant to win one votes or Facebook “likes.” Rajan, 50, addressed the media with a prepared statement in which he laid out a detailed road map for his innings in the short term, which he called a “big initial package.” “Our task today is to build a bridge to the future, over the stormy waves produced by global financial markets,” he said. Rajan also cited Rudyard Kipling while stating his intent to do the right thing, even amid criticism. “But I hope to do the right thing, no matter what the criticism, even while looking to learn from the criticism,” Rajan said. “Rudyard Kipling put it better when he mused about the requirements of an ideal central banker in his poem ‘If’: If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too: Kipling’s reference to “men” only dates these lines, but his words are clear.”

S&P 500 and Dow at record high, Australian stocks on 5 years' high.Nifty may open above 6100.

Can Indian markets will digest the gap up opening ? 
Nifty will pass over its important resistance level of 5990 with no respect. But the question is about to sustain and to enter into new zone above 6338. Now, eyes of the investors will be on RBI policy which will be announced tomorrow, first time by our new Governor.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stuck to its massive bond-buying strategy, citing softer U.S. growth in a move that stunned financial markets. By a 9-to-1 vote, the Fed chose to keep buying $85 billion a month in debt and said it would wait for more evidence of economic progress.The bank cited rising mortgage rates and reduced federal spending as headwinds that “could slow the pace of improvement in the economy.” In a press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the bank might still scale back its purchases before the end of the year, but it will depend on whether growth and the pace of hiring show greater strength.

“We could begin later this year, but even if we do that, the subsequent steps will be dependent on continued progress in the economy,” Bernanke said. “So we are tied to the data. We don’t have a fixed calendar schedule.”

Bernanke also reiterated that the Fed has no plans to raise short-term interest rates any time soon. The vast majority of bank policymakers don’t expect rates to rise until 2015 at the earliest, and even then, they probably won’t top 2% until at least three years from now.

Market seems exhausted.Nifty failed to close above 5900 mark.

13 Sept. 2013,

Market looks exhausted after a gap-up opening on the first session of the week. Today, Sensex closed at 19732.76, negative by 49.12 points. Nifty closed almost flat at 5850.6 with a 0.1 points of loss. 
Among NSE sectoral indices, CNX Realty gained the most by 2.82% and CNX FMCG was the top loser by 1.14%.
In Nifty50 stocks, BHEL gained the most by 5.97% to close at 142.95 whereas HCL Tech was the top loser by 2.64% which closed at 1046.
JPAssociat was the turnover topper by traded quantity and Axisbank by the traded value.

Nifty Outlook :

Nifty bounded in between 5810 and 5930 levels. It's interesting to see Nifty above its resistance level of 5990. Volatility persists as Fed announcement in coming week.
Important Support : 5725
Important Resistance : 5990

Biggest rise in Sensex since May, 2009, Hit 20000 mark.

Depreciating US $ against INR changed the sentiment and  cherished as

Trade deficit in August dropped to USD 10.91 billion from USD 12.27 billion in previous month; imports declined to USD 37.05 billion from USD 38.10 billion while exports increased to USD 26.14 billion from USD 25.83 billion during the same period.

Sensex hit 20k mark 1st time after 25th July, 2013. Jumped 727.04 points to close at 19997.1. Broad based Nifty50 closed at 5896.75 with a whopping 216.35 points' gain in a single day. All 18 NSE Sectoral indices closed into positive. CNX Auto gained the most by 5.98%. In Nifty50 stocks, Tatamotors gained the most by 9.82% and closed at 349 whereas NMDC was the top loser by 2.27%, closed at 118.4.

JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Infy by the traded value. 

Advance/Decline ratio was positive 3.25 : 1 as 683 stocks gained and 210 declined today on NSE.

Highest single day gain for Sensex :

Date	Points
18-May-09	2,110.79 points
25-Jan-08	1,139.92 points
25-Mar-08	928 points
14-Nov-07	893.58 points
23-Oct-07	878.85 points
23-Jan-08	864.13 points
23-Jul-08	838.08 points
31-Oct-08	743.55 points
4-May-09	731 points
10-Sep-13	727.04 points

Nifty Outlook :

Nifty has crossed its resistance of 5810 and closed 86 points above. Now, Nifty should test further resistance of 5990. Crossing 5990 and sustaining above the level will allow to speak about new North-side levels.

Immediate Support : 5810

Immediate Resistance : 5990

Nifty closed at 6 week high. US$ slipped to 65.

Correction in US$ against INR and decisions by Mr.Governor convinced investors to hold the integrity with the Indian economy. 

Today, Nifty rallied 87.45 points to close at 5680.40 . Nifty gained almost 361 points or 3.81% in a week Sensex gained 290.3 points and closed at 19270.06. US$ slipped to 65 from it's high of 68.6.

Among NSE Sectoral Indices, CNX Infra gained the most by 3.06% whereas CNX Media was top loser by 0.69%.

In Nifty50 stocks, ICICI bank was the top gainer by 7.64% and closed at 962. Bankbaroda sheded the most by 2.7% and closed at 489. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the quantity traded and ICICI Bank by the traded value.

Nifty Outlook :

As published earlier, Nifty took support around 5330 and bounced back from 5318. Now today, Nifty has crossed its major resistance level of 5600. Now next resistance will be at around 5800 level.

Immediate Support : 5610

Immediate Resistance : 5770

FDI in Pension Fund

You may finally be able to take the help of a foreign pension fund manager to secure your retirement.

It's Features :

 1]   The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill 2011 will give statutory powers Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) which was established in August 2003 as a regulator for the pension sector.

 2]   The passage of the bill could see pure pension products coming into the market. At present most of the pure pension products available in the market are linked with insurance coverage.

 3]   The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill 2011 seeks to promote the pension sector by establishing a regulator as India does not have a universal social security system.

 4]   The Cabinet had approved 26 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in pension funds but the FDI cap was not mentioned in the original bill.

 5]   In 2005, the government had earlier introduced a pension bill but it lapsed as the Lok Sabha's term got over before the legislation could be passed.

 6]   The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill 2011 was reintroduced in the Lok Sabha in 2011 by the then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee and it was subsequently referred to a standing committee.

 7]   PFRDA's National Pension System (NPS) was made mandatory for all new government recruits, except armed forces, joining after January 1, 2004.

 8]   The NPS was later opened up to all Indian citizens from 2009 on a voluntary basis.

 9]   The NPS allows its subscribers to invest in stock markets but there is a cap on equity investment. The NPS also offers subscribers the option of selecting the fund managers of their choice.

 10]   The pension bill could help channelize funds into building long-term assets for the country, including the infrastructure sector. The government wants to ease rules for insurance and pension sectors to allow them to invest in infrastructure, where it is seeking $1 trillion investment till 2017.

Many experts believe that the entry of foreign funds would offer customers more choices and better service standards. The entry of foreign players will result in better technology, larger bouquet of products and better practices, which will translate into better returns.

Allowing FDI in this sector is expected to attract international players. This will drive greater competition, bring in global best practices as well as product and process innovation.

What the pension reforms will do is attract more money and help the companies sustain their businesses over a long period of time, which is key for the sector. However, whether or not the reforms will improve service standards will depend on how well the regulator keeps tabs on malpractices and the quality of services provided by the pension funds.