Nifty failed to sustain above 5200

In a bid to check rupee's free falling against the US dollar, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday hiked the limit of external commercial borrowing (ECB) to USD 10 billion. Moreover, the regulator also increased the limit of overseas investment in government bonds by USD 5 billion to USD 20 billion which punters feel negative for equity markets.
As described into previous blogs, Nifty could't sustain above 5210 level and ended at 5107.95 by 38.1 points in negative and Sensex closed at 16860.03 with 112.48 points in negative. All BSE sectoral indices closed into negative except Consumer durables' index which was 0.13% up.Bankex was the top loser by 1.23%. In Nifty50 stocks, Heromotoco was the top loser by 2.69% and ended at 2030 whereas Cairn was the top gainer by 1.35% and ended at 330.5. HDIL was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and SBIN was by the traded value. Advance/Decline ratio was positive as 750 stocks gained and 674 stocks declined today on NSE.


Nifty Outlook : Nifty failed to close above 5210 similarly closed below its prior resistance of 5180. 5090 and 5030 are crucial supports ahead. Closing above 5210 leads Nifty to some firmness.


Immediate Support : 5090
Immediate Support : 5180

RBI screwed the markets, free fall after the policy announcement

18 June 2012 Closing Market Updates 15:51
RBI disappointed the markets by keeping CRR and REPO unchanged to 4.75% and 8% respectively.Nifty nosed down to settle at 5068.85 by shedding 70.2 points and Sensex tumbled by 237.14 points to close at  16712.69.
Among BSE sectoral indices, only Consumer durable index closed into positive. Bankex was the worst hit by 3.16% followed by Realty 2.8%. In Nifty50 stocks, just 5 stocks gained today.Powergrid was the top gainer by 1.23%,ended at 107.35 and DLF was the top loser by 4.72%, ended at 187.55.LITL was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and SBIN was by the traded value.
Advance/Decline ratio was 2.42:1 as 1009 stocks declined and 417 stocks gained today on NSE.


Nifty Overview : 


In our previous blogs we insisted to book profits around 5200 and go long only if Nifty sustains above 5210.Nifty resisted at the level of 5210 and closed below it's important level of 5090. Technically speaking, as of now unless and untill Nifty crosses 5210 mark, don't consider bullishness on the counter.
Immediate Support : 4990
Immediate Resistance : 5090


Global Markets : 


Nikkei : +151.7
Hang Seng : +193.87
FTSE : +25.09
CAC : +12.34
DAX : +50.78
Dow Futures : -20.00
Nasdaq Futures : +2.00

Weekly Nifty Outlook & RBI Mid-quarter Policy Review

15th June 2012 Closing Market Updates 16:52
A volatile session ended with major expectations from EU and therefore turned with a positive closing. Nifty ended at 5134.4 with 79.65 points' gain whereas Sensex gained 16936.22 with 258.34 points in positive.
Supported by European markets were gaining nearly 1% this afternoon. This Sunday, the Greeks will go to vote again after failing to elect a government in May. The Greeks want to stay in the Euro, but feel harsh austerity measures are driving the country into poverty, and hence want these fiscal discipline targets to be renegotiated.
In Nifty50 stocks, Grasim was the top gainer by 5.75%, closed at 2481.3 and Sterlite was the top loser by 1.96% which closed at 99.9.
Suzlon was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and SBI was by the traded value.
Advance/Decline ratio was positive by 1.39:1 as 813 stocks gained and 585 stocks declined today on NSE.



Nifty Outlook :

Technically, Nifty has crossed its hurdle of 5135-5137 and closed above it with no higher volumes. Major events are on foresight. Greek Elections on 17th June and RBI mid-quarter policy will lead the market. On weekly chart,Nifty Fut has given a breakout from prevailing short-term downtrend. Pic1
Immediate Support : 5020
Immediate Resistance : 5210



RBI Mid Quarter Policy :


Yesterday, India reported headline inflation at 7.55 percent in May, in line with expectations, which however, under ordinary circumstances would keep the RBI focused squarely on controlling prices. However, Indian GDP growth slipped to a nine-year low of 5.3 percent in the March quarter, and industrial production was flat in May, data this week showed, adding to a sense of urgency about the deteriorating state of the Indian economy.
Possibilities by RBI :
# No rate cut in CRR or in REPO :  With sagging economic growth, moderate core inflation, and increasing pressure from the government, it is unlikely that the RBI does nothing, as a downturn in domestic and global economic conditions has spurred calls for central bank action. Until a few weeks ago, the majority view was that the RBI would keep rates and CRR on hold at its June review.

Market reaction: There would be sharp sell-off across all asset classes.

# Rate cut in CRR as well as REPO : Many market participants are betting on a modest reduction in both the repo rate and CRR because the combination of interest rate and liquidity easing would send a signal that the RBI is keen to prop up growth by providing liquidity to banks while ensuring inflation is under control. An easing in core inflation to around 4.85 percent in May may give the central bank comfort to cut rates. Such an action would compel banks to cut lending rates as improved cash flow brings down their cost of deposits, which has remained high. The market also expects the RBI to sound pro-growth in its statement, and at the same time highlight inflation risks. But if 0.25% cut in CRR we dont think that banks will also reduce their lending rates.
Market reaction: The rupee may rise marginally, with stocks posting modest gains.The market has considered the 25 basis rate cut in CRR, anything above it will support market to rise and v.v.


# No cut in CRR and cut in REPO : The RBI may decide only to reduce rates but refrain from infusing more market liquidity, as it is already injecting cash into the system through bond purchases and may prefer to save the CRR tool for when liquidity tightens sharply. High food prices and consumer price inflation continue to pose risks to inflation and the RBI may not be comfortable turning dovish. However, only a repo rate cut may not be enough to spur banks to cut lending rates, or to improve sentiment sufficiently to support the growth.
Market reaction: The market has risen on expectations of 25 basis points' rate cut in CRR such a mild step could disappoint investors and push up bond and swap rates.

#Above 25 basis points rate cut in CRR and no change in REPO : The RBI could choose only to reduce the CRR, which would release liquidity and bring down banks' cost of funds immediately, enabling them to reduce lending rates. Many view a reduction in CRR as a more effective tool than a rate cut. The central bank has been under increasing pressure to cut the CRR after finance ministry officials and the country's largest state bank have called for one. The RBI may be reluctant to cut CRR by such a big margin, however, as that could fuel inflationary pressures.

Market reaction: Initially equity market will zoom but Government bond and swap curves could steepen with short-end rates softening as cash pressures ease. Concerns that a steep CRR cut could prompt the RBI to avoid bond purchases could keep long-end rates elevated.

Major Global Markets :

Hang Seng :+425.54

Nikkei : +0.43

FTSE : +33.51

CAC : +57.07

DAX : +108.02

Dow Futures : +47.00

Nasdaq Futures : +8.25

Gold : 1625.63
Silver : 28.74
USD/INR : 55.5900
EUR/INR : 70.1650
GBP/INR : 86.3460

Nifty failed to sustain on higher levels,S&P indicating Closed below 5050.

11th June, 2012 Closing Market Updates 16:07

As per mentioned in the blog published on 6th May,2012, Nifty June future spurted and made a high of 5124 and could not sustain above 5100 mark even after strong global cues as S&P feared about Slowing GDP growth and political roadblocks to economic policy making are just some of the factors pushing up the risk that India (unsolicited BBB-/Negative/A-3) could lose its investment-grade rating. Industrial output growth for April and consolidated monthly inflation for May would largely determine the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) next move on interest rate hikes which will be announced on 18th of this month. All eyes are at Greece election would be held this weekend.
Spot Nifty ended at 5041.7 by shedding 26.65 points after making day high of 5124.45.Sensex ended at 16627.48 down by 91.39 points. Adjusted closing for Nifty was at 5054.1. Nifty Fut.(June) contract closed at 5059.4 with a premium of 5.3 points.
Among BSE Sectoral Indices,  Consumer durables' index rose the most by 1.14% followed by FMCG index by 0.31%., all other sectors closed into red.Worst hit was Capital Goods by 1.8%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Tatapower was the top gainer by 2.23% and ended at 96.4 whereas HCLTech was the top loser by 3.46% and ended at 478.45.
LITL was the most traded stocks by quantity and SBI by the traded value on NSE today.
Advance /Decline ratio was on positive side by minority percentage as 720 stocks gained & 702 stocks declined on NSE today.


Nifty Outlook :
All eyes are set on three primary events i.e. Inflation data release, Greek Parliamentary elections which will be held on 17th June and RBI Mid-quarter Policy on 18th June. Technically speaking, Nifty(Fut.) should close above 5090 levels to touch 5175-5200 levels.Failing to close above 5100 level, Nifty may fall upto 4965 level.
Nifty immediate Resistance : 5090(closing)
Nifty immediate Resistance : 4965.


Global Indices :


Nikkei : +165.64
HangSeng : +451.29
FTSE : +48.69
CAC : +50.46 
DAX : +114.46
Dow Futures : +87.00
Nasdaq Futures : +18.00


Gold(US$) : 1689.6
Silver(US$) : 28.63
USD/INR : 55.68
EUR/INR : 69.90
GBP/INR : 86.5580

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Smart bounceback on Indian bourses

6th June,2012 Closing Market Updates 16:29
Global markets' recovery pulled Indian markets to witness a smart recovery.Nifty gained 124.05 points and set at 4987.35 after hitting 5000 mark whereas Sensex jumped 403.57 points to end at 16424.21.
US$ also eased by 28 paise to promote today's rally into equity market.
All BSE sectorial indices closed into positive.Auto index was the top gainer by 3.75% folled by Capital Goods' index(3.51%), Power(3.38%) and Metal index(3.0).
In Nifty50 stocks, Tatamotors gained the most and rose by 5.41% and ended at 233.65.Cipla was the top loser by 0.34% which ended at 308.7.
LITL was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and SBIN by the traded value.
Advance/Decline ratio was positive at 3.7:1 as 1146  stocks gained and 311 declined today on NSE.


Nifty Outlook : 
Immediate Support : 4939
Breakout above 5015(closing).


Nifty fut. has changed the trend for the short term from down to up as it has crossed level of 4939 but again Nifty June Fut. was hovering at crucial resistance level of 4980-4990 and closed just below it at 4975.3 with a discount of 22 points. If Nifty fut. crosses 4980-4990 level it will face a resistance around 5010-5015 and which is also considered as a breakout level for further avenues up to 5100 and 5170.


Major Global Indices :


Nikkei : +151.53
Hang Seng : +261.5
FTSE : +74.31
CAC : +62.42
DAX : +103.38
Dow Futures : +111
Nasdaq Futures : +26.25


Gold(US$) : 1635.02
Silver(US$) : 29.35
USD/INR : 55.4280
EUR/INR : 69.2950
GBP/INR : 85.8370
JPY/INR : 1.4280

Nifty tested its crucial support 4770

4th June Closing Market Updates : 16:03

As stated in previous blog(s), Nifty didn't break its crucial support of 4770 yet and again bounced back to end up flat. Nifty ended at 4856.45 by gaining 14.85 points and Sensex closed positive by 43.58 points to end at 16008.74.

Nifty gained almost 44.50 points from its day low of 4770.35 and Sensex bounced nearly 259 points from day’s low. INR became stronger verses US$ by nearly 0.5 paise.USD/INR was trading at 55.67 at the time of closing bell of Indian equity market.

Among BSE sectorial indices, Capital Goods index gained the most by 2.08% and Consumer durable's index was the top loser by 2.92%.

In Nifty50 stocks, JPAssociates was the top gainer by 5.59%, closed at 65.15 and Gail was the top loser by 3.07% after closing at 320.10.

LITL was the most active stock by traded quantity and SBIN by the traded value.

Nifty Outlook : 

Immediate Supports : 4770/ 4530

Immediate Resistance : 4880/ 4970

Spot Nifty again undoubtedly took support at 4770 levels and this level is very crucial to sustain above on weekly basis. Nifty future witnessed a triple support around 4760 level. On 18th May, Nifty Fut. marked low of 4767.45 and closed at 4888.95 with a volumes of 2.03 crores, again on 23rd May, Nifty Fut. made a low of 4782.2 and closed at 4814.55 with volumes figuring near to 1.82 crores. Today also Nifty Fut. bounced back from its low of 4760.5 and ended at 4850.15 but the only thing to worry is on the lesser volumes of just 1.35 crores. So question is does this bounce-back rally sustainable ? 

Major Global Indices :

Nikkei : -144.62

Hang Seng : -372.75

FTSE : -61.88

CAC : +7.36

DAX : -80.13

Dow Futures : -57.00

Nasdaq Futures : -5.25

Gold(US$) :  1623.5

Silver(US$) : 28.51

USD/INR : 55.4480

EUR/INR : 68.9750

GBP/INR : 85.2140

JPY/INR : 1.4084