Friday, June 21, 2013

No more panic after yesterday's turmoil

Today, volatile market sustained above yesterday's closing and evade the panic. Indian equities edged higher on Friday after earlier hitting a two-month low yesterday; as exporters such as Infy advanced on hopes a record low rupee would improve overseas earnings and helping indexes end a tough week on a brighter note. Broad-based Nifty added  just 11.8 points and ended at 5667.7. The Sentive index, Sensex ended at 18761.22 with a marginal gain of 41.93 points.
Among NSE Sectoral Indices, CNX IT was the major gainer by 1.46% whereas CNX PSU Bank Index fell the most by 1.96%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Indusing Bank gained the most by 3.95% and ended at 467.  Jindalsteel was the top loser as it corrected 7.79% and ended at 204.65.
Bankbaroda, BHEL, DLF, Gail, Jindalstel, JPAssociat, PNB, Ranbaxy & Sesagoa hit the 52wk low today.
Advance/Decline ratio was negative at 2.04 : 1 as 625 stocks declined and 307 stocks gained today on NSE.

Yesterday, the Rupee slipped to a record low of 59.98, triggering sell-offs in the bond and equity markets as the chairman of US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke signaled a tapering of its monetary stimulus which also spooked stocks,currencies,bonds and commodities globally.
As a result, we have seen the global meltdown triggered by indications that the US Fed may stop the monthly infusion of $85 billion through bond buyback,popularly called QE 3 and a weak Chinese manufacturing data as also the fall of the Rupee led to a 526 points slide in the Sensex yesterday, the biggest single day loss in 21 months. Yesterday,  it was Rs 2,100 crore net selling by FIIs in Indain Equities and made Dalal Street the Laal(Red). Similarly,the Rupee also closed at its all time low of 59.56 against the US$. In addition, trading in the government bonds market was also suspended for an hour because of a bond price crash,a rare incident. Yields on the 10-year bond rose by 12 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India managed to stave-off a bigger crisis by preventing the currency from crossing the psychologically sensitive barrier of 60 against the dollar and restricting the exchange rate to 59.56 at close through persistent dollar sales in the market but while the 60 level has been protected, markets are far from assured as RBIs forex reserves of $290bn are just enough to cover seven months of imports. Efforts by policy makers,economic advisor to the PMO Raghuram Rajan and Planning Commission chief Montek Singh Ahluwalia to talk up the Rupee also didn't yield much results. But today The rupee recovered against the dollar on Friday as dealers adjusted their positions following sale of the US currency by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in support of the Indian currency on Thursday.
“The RBI came in strongly to protect the rupee from falling below 60 per dollar yesterday (on Thursday) and that has clearly drawn the line for the market. Also, there have been positive comments from the finance ministry and RBI since morning which has nudged banks to cut their long dollar positions. We expect exporters to also sell dollars at these levels,” said a dealer with a private bank. RBI deputy governor H.R.Khan said Friday the central bank “will take steps if necessary” on the rupee, adding that both RBI and the government were “watching the rupee.” Finance minister, P.Chidambaram also said that the government and RBI are watching the “rupee, market situation.” “Government is not happy with the rupee situation. RBI will take necessary actions on the rupee,” Chidambaram said.These comments have soothed the market, which now expects the rupee will find support from the central bank if needed. At 3.10pm the rupee was at 59.30 to the dollar, up 0.47% from Thursday’s record close of 59.58. It rose to 59.14 per dollar earlier on Friday after opening at 59.77.
Nifty Outlook : 
As said earlier, any bounce back towards 5900 would be considered as to ease long positions, Nifty made a high of 5867.4 on Tue. but could not sustained at higher levels. Now 5640 (in Fut. & 5610 in spot) is the last supportive trend level and any sustainable closings below such level will make the market bearish for the short term.

Immediate Support : 5640 / 5610
Immediate Resistance : 5690 / 5770 

Friday, June 14, 2013

Market gave smart bounceback. Nifty ended above 5800 & Sensex above 19k mark

Eyeing on RBI Credit Policy which will be announced on Monday,17th, market gave a smart bounceback supported by supported by positive global markets. Nifty gained 106.2 points and ended at 5805.3(1.86%) and Sensex gained by 352.62 points and ended at 19179.78.
All the NSE Sectoral Indices closed in positive.CNX Metal Index was the major gainer by 2.85% followed by CNX Auto(2.69%), CNX Realty(2.32%), CNX Commodities(2.26%), CNX Energy(2.26%), CNX Finance(2.23%) and CNX Infra(2.18%).
In Nifty50 stocks, Hindalco gained the most by 8.47% and ended at 105 whereas Indusingbk was the top loser by 1.47% which ended at 481.6.
Advance / Decline ratio was positive 2.63 : 1 as 637 stocks gained and 242 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As described in previous blog, after breaking 5885 level, Nifty Fut. collapsed to 5692.25 yesterday.Considering the RBI policy on Monday, 17th June, market may show abnormal volatility. Bounce back upto 5940 would be considered as a relief rally for the long punters.

Immediate Support : 5775 / 5690
Immediate Resistance : 5880 / 5940

Friday, June 7, 2013

Nifty below 5900 and Sensex below 19500.

Weak global indices dragged Indian market to its' week low. Nifty ended at 5885.75 with 35.65 points down and Sensex dropped 71.9 points to end at 19447.59. 
As said earlier, closing below 6140 level will break short term upward-trend and may test 5890 level; accordingly, Nifty Fut. has tested 5890 thrice in this week. Among NSE Sectoral Indices, PSU Bank's index was the top loser by 2% whereas CNX IT & CNX Pharma were the only gainers. CNX IT gained the most by 1.42%. In Nifty50 stocks, TCS was the top gainer by 3.35% gain and ended at 1520. Axisbank was the top loser by 3.26% , ended at 1371.9. Rcom was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Axisbank by the traded value on NSE today.
Advance/Decline Ratio was negative as 730 stocks declined and 564 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As predicted into last week's outlook for Nifty Fut., it has not crossed 6140 and which was needed to intact the short-term upward trend and hence we have seen testing of 5890 level for three consecutive days. Considering this, Nifty Fut. has an important support around this level(5885-5890) and said earlier, any breach of the level on the closing basis for the two consecutive sessions may lead Nifty Fut. to 5770 which is also 61.8% retracement from a recent low and recent high i.e. 5480.3 to 6239 tested on 10 Apr'13 and 20 May'13 respectively. Upside upto 6040-6050 possible if it will show the strength to cross and sustain above 5990 level.

Immediate Support : 5870
Immediate Resistance : 5990 / 6040

Friday, May 31, 2013

GDP data made investors nervous-Nifty ended below 6000, Sensex below 20000 mark.

Market tanked on weak global markets and GDP outcome. Nifty dropped 139.60 points to end at 5984.45 and Sensex collapsed 453.09 points and ended at 19762.31.
Market sentiments got hurt by declines in lenders such as HDFC Bank Ltd as hopes the Reserve Bank of India would cut interest rates next month were dashed after the economy grew in line with forecasts in the March quarter. Market is preparing to digest this possibility also.
    All sectoral indices on NSE closed into red exception was CNX IT. CNX Realty was the top loser by 3.09% followed by CNX PSU Bank,  CNX Finance, CNX Energy, BankNifty, CNX Metal, CNX Media, CNX Commodities, CNX FMCG, CNX PSE and CNX Infra which were down more than 2%. In Nifty50 stocks, Ultracemco was the top loser by 5.18%, ended at 1885 whereas Infy was the top gainer by 2.67% and ended at 2405. Unitech was the turnover topper by traded quantity and Infy by the traded value on NSE today. Advance/Decline ratio was negative to 3.57 : 1 as 721 stocks declined and 202 gained on NSE today.

Nifty Outlook :

Nifty future didn't move beyond the level of 6140 which was necessary for a bull run. Nifty fut. ended below the important level of 6110 and another closing below this level will break short term upward-trend and may test 5890 level in coming days.

Immediate Support : 5950 / 5890
Immediate Resistance : 6060 / 6130

Friday, May 24, 2013

Nifty below 6000, Sensex below 20000.

24th May 2013, Market struggled to recover from yesterday's losses but failed to recover most. Nifty ended at 5994.7, gained 27.65 points and Sensex ended at 19731.27, positive with a 56.94 points. In NSE Sectoral Indices, CNX Metal index gained the most by 1.68% followed by Infra(1.49%). CNX pharma was the top loser by 0.72%. 
In Nifty50 stocks, Maruti was the top gainer by 7.86% whereas Sunpharma was the top loser by 3.11%. Unitech ws the turnover topper by the quantity traded and SBIN by the traded value on NSE today.
Advance Decline ratio was positive by 1.3 : 1 as 723 stocks gained and 557 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook

As mentioned in our previous blog, we have seen a volatility of 302.9 points or 5.05% in a week. Nifty didnt move above 6240 and nosed down after making a weekly high of 6239. Considering a breach of short term long trend, Nifty Fut. will trade in a range of 5890 to 6080. 31st May is the last date of the May, 2013 contract and it may attracts volatility.

Immediate Support : 5960 / 5890
Immediate Resistance : 6080 / 6160

Friday, May 17, 2013

Nifty at 30 months' high. Sensex closed at 20286 and Nifty ended at 6183.95.

Market consolidated from last two days but today ended at week's high because of short covering in the last half an hour; which lead the Nifty to end at 30 months' high. S&P CNX Nifty ended at 6183.95 first time after 12th Nov.2010. Sensex ended at 20286.12 after gaining 38.79 points. Among sectoral indices, CNX Realty was the top gainer by 2.03% whereas CNX Media was the top loser by 0.84%. In Nifty50 stocks, BHEL was the top gainer by 5.06% and ended at 203.5. Indusindbk was the top loser by 2.58% and ended at 511. Unitech was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and ITC by the traded value on NSE today.
Advance/Decline ratio was negative as 519 stocks declined and 434 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook
As mentioned in the previous blog, Nifty sustained above 6030 level and we saw the result. Now at such a higher level, the risk of holding long or short positions is definitely high as the volatility will be immense. Nifty may give a correction upto 6010 to 5890. But this does not mean it will come surely. But correction upto such levels will strengthen the market towards its new lifetime high.

Support : 6110 / 5980
Resistance : 6240 / 6350

Friday, May 10, 2013

Nifty at 28 months high.Sensex above 20000 mark and Nifty near 6100 mark.

Better than expected IIP numbers boosted the market to end at 28 month high, after January 2011. Nifty gained 41.85 points and ended at 6092,first time after 4th Jan.2011. Sensex ended at 20073.6 after gaining 134.56 points. In NSE Sectoral Indices, Auto index was the top gainer by 2.16% and Metal index was the top loser by 0.15%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Maruti gained the most by 4.41% and ended at 1733.35 whereas Coalindia was the top loser by 2.9% which ended at 299.9. Unitech was the turnover topper by the quantity traded and SBIN by the value traded on NSE today. Advance / Decline ratio was negative as 468 stocks gained and 481 stocks declined today on NSE.

Live trading session on tomorrow i.e. on 11th May, 2013 from 11:15 to 12:45.

Nifty Fut. immediate support at 6075 / 6030.
Nifty Fut. immediate resistance at 6120 / 6165.

Friday, May 3, 2013

Market discounted RBI policy.Market could not sustain at higher levels Nifty closed below 5950.

Indian equity market has already discounted the most awaiting influential event, that is RBI Credit policy. Nifty failed to sustain above 6000 mark and ended at 5943.45 after ebbing 55.9 points whereas Sensex ended at 19576.58 after shedding 159.19 points. 
Reserve Bank of India cut its policyinterest rate by 25 basis points on Friday for the third time since January, as expected, as growth slows and inflation ebbs, but said there is little room to ease monetary policy further. The Reserve Bank of India trimmed the repo rate to 7.25 percent, its lowest since May 2011, and kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks unchanged at 4 percent, also in line with expectations.
Among NSE Sectoral Indices, PSU Bank Index Banknifty was the major loser by 3.28% followed by the Banknifty index by 2.57%. The IT index was the top gainer by just 0.39%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Jindalstel was the top gainer by 3.81%, ended at 318.45 and Tatamotors was the top loser by 3.99% which ended at 285.6
Rcom was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and SBIN was by the traded value today on NSE.
Advance / Decline ratio was negative at 1.8:1 as 312 stocks gained and 564 stocks declined on NSE today.

Nifty Outlook : 
Nifty Fut. failed to sustain above 6030 which will be considered as a resistance on weekly chart. Consider 5870 is a near support. Any sustainable movement above or below these levels will lead the direct to the direction accordingly.
Immediate Support : 5870
Immediate Resistance : 6030

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Nifty closed on a month high. Hit 5794.35.

After Govt.'s declaration, that exports hit $300 billion for the fiscal year ended March, rate sensitive stocks surged and overall buying seen in the last session of the market hours hoping rate cut further. Nifty ended at 5774.75 with a gain of 86.05 points and Sensex rallied 255.18 points and ended at 18986.34. Nifty hit 5794.35 as a day high in the last half an hour just because of short covering. In NSE Sectoral Indices, BankNifty was the top gainer which gained 2.56% followed by Auto index, up by 2.32%. CNX IT was the only loser by 0.05%.
In Nifty50 stocks, Indusindbk rose the most by 7.71% and ended at 451.95 whereas NMDC was the top loser by 2.48%, ended at 123.85. Rcom was the turnover topper by the traded  quantity and TCS was by traded value on NSE today.
Advance/Decline ratio was positive to 1.69 : 1 as 597 stocks gained and 353 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

In this week Nifty Fut. has gained 238.6 points on closing basis.The weekly low was 5503 and high was 5796.7. As expected Nifty Fut has completed it's bounce-back and crossed the resistance of around 5775 but failed to close above the same. It is advisable to book profits at higher levels.Any closing above 5780 level lead the rally to test 5860-5880 levels.
Immediate Support : 5720 / 5660 / 5630
Immediate Resistance : 5796 / 5830 / 5880

Friday, April 12, 2013

Infy snatched but FMCG and Banking seized the market

Closing Market Updates 12th Apr.2013
As expected, Infy triggered the market sentiment and lead to gap down opening. Nifty opened 74 points on the down side and unable to recover the losses. Banking and other major stocks stopped market to slide below 5500 mark and Nifty ended at 5522.05 with a loss of 71.95 points and Sensex ended at 18224.47 with a fall of 317.73 points.
FMCG index gained by 1.91% and was the top gainer among sectoral indices on NSE followed by PSU Bank index. Whereas IT index tanked the most by 11.74.
In Nifty50 stocks, JPAssociat gained the most by 4.67% and ended at 70.6. Infy was the top loser by 22.07% and ended at 2273.05.
Advance/decline ratio was negative as 526 stocks gained and 752 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook : Nifty Apr Fut may struggle to go beyond the range of 5620 and 5580 levels.
Support : 5480/ 5455 / 5360
Resistance : 5580 / 5620 / 5660

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