Sadanand Gowda's maiden Rail Budget derailed the market. Nifty crashed 210 points.

The Rail Budget failed to live up to market expectations and investors preferred to book profits after a sharp rally seen in most of these stocks so far in the year 2014. However, news of FDI in railways announced by the Railway Minster failed to cheer the Street and railway-related stocks, but that is one step which is in the right direction. 
Nifty tumbled by 184.3 points to end up at 7602.85 from the day's high of 7807.05. Sensex collapsed 578.32 points to end at 25521.76. Nifty traveled into three centuries from 7800 at the beginning to dip below 7600 mark at the time of closing. In Nifty50 stocks, just two stocks gained, Sunpharma(+0.62%) & ITC(+0.06%). DLF was the top loser by 8.53%.
In CNX Sectoral Indices, CNX Realty was the top loser by 7.35% followed by CNX Infra(5.22%), CNX PSE(5.05%).
Most of railway-related stocks dipped into the red after opening on a strong note. Texmaco Rail and Engineering was the top most loser among the railway-related stocks. The stock plunged a little over 13 per cent in trade post the announcement of the Budget.

Nifty Outlook :
In the last blog dated 27th June, 2014, we had expected about the smart rally if sustained above 7540 and similarly, Nifty has geared up above the level on the June 30th. 
As we are into the influencing time, the investors are staying cautious and keen on booking profits. Union Budget on Thursday, i.e. 10th July and start of quarterly result session from Infy(11th July) will definitely affect the market but hopefully not the sentiment. Spot Nifty has an important support at 7510 on daily closing basis whereas immediate trading trendline support will be at 7570 (considering 5 mins chart since 23rd June. Instantly, upside resistance will be at 7670.

Market ended flat. Nifty above 7500 & Sensex above 25 k mark.

Markets held the positiveness on the last day of the week and the first day of July month derivative expiry. Nifty ended at 7512.25, up 19.05 points and Sensex gained 48.44 points to close at 25111.11 as Brent crude fell below $113 a barrel on Friday, on track for its biggest weekly loss since January as investors unwound positions on reduced concerns over exports from strife-torn Iraq. 

Among CNX sectorial indices, CNX Pharma gained the most by 2.77% followed by CNX IT(2.51%) whereas Metal index was the top loser by 1.37%. 

In Nifty50 stocks, TechM was the top gainer by 4.09% gain and Mcdowell-n hit the worst by 3.77%.

Advance Decline ratio was slightly on positive side as 620 stocks gained and 538 stocks declined on NSE today.

Nifty Outlook : Nifty is trading into a specific range and depending on many factors to come in next month; i.e. very first budget by Hon FM Mr.Arun Jaitley of a new Govt. which will be announced on 10th July and corporate results which may commence with IT giant Infy on July 12. Also we must not ignore the scarcity of water all over the nation if monsoon won't arrive soon. Technically speaking, spot nifty has a good support at 7440 as well as a resistance at 7660-7680 level. In the month of June, nifty's trend was declining and reduced the broad range of 240 points to 50 points from 7540 & 7490. So any breakthrough above or below these levels leads to a smart rally considering the above mentioned supports.

Chart 1 Nifty June

Downside continues, Nifty tested 7120

Market continued a pessimism as it gave negative closing for the third consecutive session. Today Nifty tried to maintain into green but last half an hour it witnessed profit booking and lost the positiveness.
Sensex lost 39.71 and Nifty50 slipped by 10.65 points and ended at 24194.44 and 7225respectively. Adjusted closings were 24217.34(-16.81) & 7229.95(-5.7). Among NSE Sectoral indices, CNX PSU Bank index which was down by 2.68% and Banknifty which turned to negative by 1.58% hit the market and pulled down the overall benchmark. Hindunilever was the top gainer among Nifty50 stocks, closed at 597.3 with up 7.34%. Bankbaroda was the top loser by 4.2%, closed at 840.
Advance Decline ratio was on negative side as 560 stocks gained and 604 stocks declined today on NSE. Tatamotors was the turnover topper by the quantity traded and ICICIBank by the traded value for today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :
Market is wait n watch mood. Nifty tumbled nearly 386 points in this week(High of 7504 and today's low 7118.45). Nifty made a weekly high of 7504 in the very first day of the week and profit booking threw the market to settle at 7359 on the same day. May expiry (which contained 24 sessions which is usually on highest side after excluding 1st May and election holiday) resulted into winding up long positions as premium eroded from 35-45 points to 5 rupees at the time of today's clsoing. Nifty Fut ended at 7230 whereas spot Nifty ended at 7225. Nifty has set some resistances on its own in recent swings. Major support for the Nifty is at 7040 to 7000 levels. Q1 FY2014-15 results will be announced by 2nd June and new cabinet actions will guide the market direction.
Major Supports : 7040                                                                             Major Resistance : 7340 
Immediate Support : 7190                                                                        Immediate Resistance : 7270.

Nifty closed above 7000 mark, Sensex above 23500.. Is this a new beginning ??

Another tide for market to close at new all time high.
Nifty gained 155.45 points to close at 7014.25 and Sensex zoomed 556.77 points to record new closing high of 23551.00.
Coal India was the top gainer among Nifty50 stocks, rose 6.11% whereas Mcdowell-n was the top loser by 2.72%.
All among CNX sectoral indices, all the indices closed into green except CNX Pharma.
CPSE index gained the most by 3.98% led by Coalindia, IOC and PFC; followed by PSE(3.25%), Energy(3.05%) and Media(3.0%)
Advance decline ratio was marginally on positive side as 566 stocks gained and 483 stocks declined and 49 remained unchanged today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

Last two session, we have witnessed a massive all rounded rally on the bourses. But Nifty May Fut have recorded a 20% lesser volume than of Friday, 9th May. As we are into a zone of new highs, no barriers will be set for the Nifty technically, but 7135-7240 level will be the level where we must book our extended profits.In last week, Nifty has taken support from 6640 level, mentioned on our page on faebook https://www.facebook.com/pages/Integrity-Financial-Consultants/262737967138245
Major support : 6700-6640

Possibility of NDA gaining majority with figure around 270-300 will definitely set a trigger for market but we must remember that market has already discounted the thing.
Another possibility of hand in hand position with BSP/ SP or TCP, in that case, I personally feel no one will agree on NAMO as PM. President of BSP will show her eagerness for Sushmaji instead as BSP president wont be ready for Rjnathji as he may prove his power against her in UP.
In case of SP, all cards will be played in blind !. Nothing different with the unpredictable woman of Bengal, Ms.Banerjee. Speaking with AIADMK, it will become dominant if gets 22-27 sets but another possibility of staying back in TN, she will support BJP and demand for a special robust package. Or we never know she may be the new limelight face for PM.
Our expectations on results :

	STATE	SEATS	CONG	BJP	NDA         Allies	Others
1	ANDHRA PRADESH	42	4	4	14	20
2	ARUNACHAL PRADESH	2	1	1		0
3	ASSAM	14	7	5		2
4	BIHAR	40	2	22	5	11
5	CHHATTISGARH	11	2	9		0
6	DELHI	7	0	6		1
7	GOA	2	1	1		0
8	GUJRAT	26	2	24		0
9	HARYANA	10	3	5	1	1
10	HIMACHAL PRADESH	4	1	3		0
11	J&K	6	2	2		2
12	JHARKHAND	14	1	10		3
13	KARNATAKA	28	11	16		1
14	KERALA	20	8	1		11
15	MP	29	3	26		0
16	MAHARASHTRA	48	8	20	16	4
17	MANIPUR	2	2	0		0
18	MEGHALAY	2	1	0		1
19	MIZORAM	1	1	0		0
20	NAGALAND	1	1	0		0
21	ORRISA	21	3	5		13
22	PUNJAB	13	5	3	5	0
23	RAJASTHAN	25	1	24		0
24	SIKKIM	1	0	0		1
25	TAMILNADU	39	1	2	5	31
26	TRIPURA	2	0	0		2
27	UTTARAKHAND	5	1	4		0
28	UP	80	8	40		32
29	WB	42	4	2		36
30	ANDMAN & NICOBAR	1	0	1		0
31	CHANDIGARH	1	0	1		0
32	DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI	1	0	1		0
33	DAMAN DIU	1	0	1		0
34	LAKSHDWEEP	1	1	0		0
35	PUDDUCHERRY	1	0	0		1
		543	85	239	46	173

Nifty failed to hold above 6300 mark, Sensex maintained to stay above 21k.

The Indian equity market ended the day with losses on Friday after the rupee hit over five week low against the US Dollar. Rupee depreciated almost 20 paise in the post noon session and ended at 61.5350 versus US$.The US dollar faded marginally after a mixed bag of US economic data. Also, IT & banking dragged the market after flat start. Nifty closed at 6261.55, down by 57.25 points and Sensex slipped 201.56 points to end at 21063.62.
All the NSE Sectoral indices closed into red and the leader was CNX Realty by 2.58% followed by CNXIT by 2.4%.
In Nifty50 stocks, BPCL gained the most by 2.92% whereas TCS plunged by 5.5% on announcing Q3 results.
Unitech was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Infy by the traded value.
Advance/Decline ratio was at 3:1 as 1071 stocks declined and 355 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As described in the last blog, Nifty did not break 6140 level and stayed into Northward journey. Also test the upper resistance of 6335 but again failed to close above it. Nifty should give next weekly close above 6255 to maintain the uptrend.
Important Support : 6181 / 6220
Important Resistance : 6290 / 6335

Infy results failed to pump steam into the market

Infy beat the market expectations as it reported Q3 profits to 2875 cr and Sales 13026 cr vs 12965 QoQ but could not helped the market to retain it's gain as market closed with a minor gains. Nifty gained 3.1 points to close at 6171.45 whereas Sensex was up by 45.12 points and closed at 20758.49.
Among CNX Sectoral Indices, CNX IT gained the most 2.16% and CNX PSU Bank was the top loser by 1.74%. In Nifty50 stocks, Infy gained the most by 3.05% and closed at 3556 after close to a new high of 3580.5. Indusind bank was the top loser by 3.17% ; closed at 403.6as it's NPA% rose in the last quarter.
Manappuram was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Infy by the traded value.
Advance/Decline ratio was negative as 699 stocks declined and 225 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :
6120-6140 can be considered as a strong support for further pull back rally eases upto 6230 level. Any political movement or an quiver Q3 results may set the direction for shorter term.
Important Support : 6120
Important Resistance : 6230

Fear of QE Tapering tapered and fueled the sentiment to give a smart bounceback. Sensex closed over 21k mark; Nifty gained with a three digit.

The S&P BSE Sensex rallied 371.1 points to close at 21079.72 as experts are discounting the impact of the $10 billion QE taper. The rally in the market was led by gains in Reliance Industries and HDFC. All round buying across all the sectors, pulled the broad based Nifty50  with a 107.6 points to close 6,274.25 level as institutional investors bought stocks across the board as their concerns eased after the RBI policy and US Fed meet. 

All CNX Sectoral Indices closed positive. CNX Energy gained the most by 3.56% followed by CNX Realty(2.84%), CNX PSE(2.26%) and Auto by 2.04%.

Reliance gained the most by 4.82% to close at 895.25 whereas SSLT was the top loser by 1.32% which closed at 202.2.

Unitech was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Techm by the traded value on NSE.

Advance decline ratio was positive as 774 stocks gained and 325 declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As published into previous blog, Nifty took good support at around 6140 and recovered 135 points on weekly closing. Now it is interesting to watch whether Nifty crosses 6340-6360 levels to move ahead. Just 2 days before Dec.2013 derivative expiry, Nifty Dec fut was closing with nearly 25 points premium and can be considered this is because of short covering in the specific expiry. Some volatility will be there because of this expiry on next week.

Immediate support : 6210 / 6140

Immediate Resistance : 6335 / 6360 / 6420

Discouraging IIP nos and rising inflation and RBI rate hike worries drag down the market for the forth day in a row

Sensex dropped by 210.03 points to close at 20715.58 and Nifty ended at 6168.4, losing 68.65 points. Nifty corrected nearly 254 points from it's all time high in just 5 sessions on higher inflation, poor IIP numbers and fear of rate hike by RBI Governor as mid-quarter review of monetary policy 2013-2014 is scheduled on 18th Dec.

Industrial production, represented by IIP, contracted more than forecast to negative 1.8% in October as against market expectation of negative 1.2%. In September, IIP grew at 2%. On the other hand, consumer price inflation rose further in November 2013 to 11.24% from revised 10.17% in October. At 11.24%, retail inflation was sharply higher than market expectations of 10%. CPI inflation for October has been revised upward from earlier estimate of 10.1%.

All the NCX sectoral indices closed into red and CNX PSU Bank index was the top loser by 2.49% followed by BankNifty(2.31%) and CNX Finance(2.22%)

In Nifty50 stocks, Tatamotor was the major gainer by 2.73% and closed at 370.3 whereas JPAssociat was the top loser by 5.26% and closed at 51.35.

JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and ICICIbank by the traded value on NSE.

Advance decline ratio was negative at 3.93 : 1 as 712 stocks declined and just 181 gained today on NSE.

   Mr.Rajan said economic growth was weak and inflation was high, which was a cause for concern. Both monetary and fiscal policies were essential to tackle inflationary pressures, he said. Regarding the fiscal policy, Rajan said the Finance Minister had laid down a road map that is expected to keep the fiscal situation under control. The government's fiscal deficit target is 4.8 per cent of GDP in this financial year. Aligning diesel prices with international rates would definitely control the fiscal deficit, the Governor said. "In the short term, hiking diesel prices will have an inflationary impact. But in the long run, this will lead to deficit reduction," he observed. 

Nifty Outlook :

Spot Nifty has given a negative closing on weekly basis even after making new high of 6415.25 on the 1st day of the week. Now Nifty should sustain above 6140 or give close above the level for the next week to continue this uptrend. Market will be volatile and the movement will be depend on RBI mid quarter policy outcome and Tapering in bond purchase in the U.S. and definitely this will direct the market in coming weeks.

Immediate Support : 6140

Immediate Resistance : 6190

Nifty closed positive 1st time after 3rd Nov.2013 on lower CAD estimates by Mr.R Rajan

    Guidance on lower CAD at around $56 Billions this year by the Governor Mr.R. Rajan yesterday, pulled Indian markets to close with a positive note after getting beaten 7 sessions consecutively. 

    Nifty closed positive for the first time after 3rd Nov.2013. Nifty opened with a gap up and touched a high of 6101.65 but inflation data impacted and reduced the gains. Nifty closed at 6056.15 adding 66.55 points to it's last closing, 5989.60. Sensex gained 199.04 points to settle at 20393.44. 

    All the sectoral indices gained today except CNX Pharma Index.CNX Auto was the top gainer by 3% followed by Banknifty, CNXRealty, CNX PSUBanks, CNX Infra & CNX Finance which rose by more than 2%. CNX pharma was down by 0.76%.

In Nifty50 stocks, Axisbank was the top gainer by 6.06% rise which closed at 1093.05. CoalIndia was the top loser by 3.54%, closed at 275. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Tatasteel by the  traded value today on NSE.

    October WPI inflation rose to 7 percent, from September's 6.46 percent. Meanwhile, the August WPI inflation has been revised upwards to 6.99 percent from a provisional figure of 6.1 percent, following which bond yields moved up.   The October number is at its highest level since February. 

Onions continue to cause the largest dent even though food articles inflation came off to 18.19 percent from 18.40 percent in the previous month. 

    Manufacturing products, which occupy largest share in the inflationary basket, jumped to 2.50 percent versus 2.03 percent month-on-month. While non-food articles index moved down slightly, the core inflation rose to 2.6 percent from 

2.1 percent in the previous month.

Nifty Outlook :

As stated into earlier blog, breaching a level of 6160 was considered negative for a short term and we have seen more than 5% fall from it's highest closing of 6317.35 to yesterday's closing of 5989.6.

Now 5900 to 5890 will be considered as a good support level if market wants to sustain in the bull run.Again 6170-6190 would be major resistance zone to sustain above.

Important Support : 5970 / 5910

Important Resistance : 6140 / 6190

Report of the meeting held on 13th Nov.2013 by Mr.R.Rajan
MUMBAI: Seeking to calm currency markets, the Reserve Bank today said the current account deficit in 2013-14 will be $ 56 billion-- much lower than the quantum projected earlier-- and there is no fundamental reason for rupee depreciation. "Our estimates now is that CAD this year will be $ 56 billion, less than 3 per cent of GDP and $ 32 billion less than last year.... Of course, some of that compression comes of our strong measures to curb gold import," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said at a hurriedly called press conference.
The current account deficit (CAD), which is the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign exchange, touched an all-time high of $ 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of the GDP in 2012-13. Earlier, the government had projected the CAD in the current fiscal at $ 70 billion, which was revised downwards to $ 60 billion by Finance Minister P Chidambaram on back of declining gold imports and recovery in exports. Referring to the recent decline in the value of rupee, the RBI chief said there is "no fundamental reason for volatility in the exchange rate". 
Continuing its slide for the sixth straight day, the rupee lost 17 paise to trade at a fresh two-month low of 63.88 in early trade on strong dollar demand from importers.
Rajan further said RBI was weighing various options to contain exchange rate volatility and would come out with 'appropriate' steps in the future.

Sensex recorded a new high.Closed at highest ever level along with Nifty 6307.2

Sensex hit a new high of 21293.88 and closed at 21196.81 gaining 32.29 points where as spot Nifty closed at record high at 6307.2 but failed to cross it's previous high of 6357.1 made on 8th Jan 2008. Today, Nifty gained just 8.05 points after touching 6332.6. 
Among CNX sectoral indices, CNX PSU Bank index gained the most by 4.57% whereas CNX FMCG was the top loser by 1.26%
In Nifty50 stocks, IDFC gained the most by 6.48% and closed at 112.6. Top loser was Powergrid which lost 3.41% and ended at 97.85.
Advance/Decline ratio was positive by 2.06 : 1 as 604 stocks gained and 292 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

Foreign investors bought Indian shares worth 18.75 billion rupees on Thursday, their biggest single day purchase since May 21, remaining net buyers for a 20th consecutive session, bringing their total buying to nearly 181.92 billion rupees during that period.

Nifty November series has maintained the premium of nearly 50 points. Technically speaking, spot Nifty should hold 6340 level for consecutive 2-3 sessions for more bull run. But an opportunity rises if Nifty corrects to 6150 level thereafter. Avoid short selling but buy in dips considering 6110 as a closing stop.

Important Support : 6280

Importance Resistance : 6370

Special session on Sunday, 3rd Nov. from 1815 to 1930 hours in Equity and from 1800 to 2000 hours for MCX & NCDEX.