Fear of QE Tapering tapered and fueled the sentiment to give a smart bounceback. Sensex closed over 21k mark; Nifty gained with a three digit.

The S&P BSE Sensex rallied 371.1 points to close at 21079.72 as experts are discounting the impact of the $10 billion QE taper. The rally in the market was led by gains in Reliance Industries and HDFC. All round buying across all the sectors, pulled the broad based Nifty50  with a 107.6 points to close 6,274.25 level as institutional investors bought stocks across the board as their concerns eased after the RBI policy and US Fed meet. 

All CNX Sectoral Indices closed positive. CNX Energy gained the most by 3.56% followed by CNX Realty(2.84%), CNX PSE(2.26%) and Auto by 2.04%.

Reliance gained the most by 4.82% to close at 895.25 whereas SSLT was the top loser by 1.32% which closed at 202.2.

Unitech was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Techm by the traded value on NSE.

Advance decline ratio was positive as 774 stocks gained and 325 declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

As published into previous blog, Nifty took good support at around 6140 and recovered 135 points on weekly closing. Now it is interesting to watch whether Nifty crosses 6340-6360 levels to move ahead. Just 2 days before Dec.2013 derivative expiry, Nifty Dec fut was closing with nearly 25 points premium and can be considered this is because of short covering in the specific expiry. Some volatility will be there because of this expiry on next week.

Immediate support : 6210 / 6140

Immediate Resistance : 6335 / 6360 / 6420

Discouraging IIP nos and rising inflation and RBI rate hike worries drag down the market for the forth day in a row

Sensex dropped by 210.03 points to close at 20715.58 and Nifty ended at 6168.4, losing 68.65 points. Nifty corrected nearly 254 points from it's all time high in just 5 sessions on higher inflation, poor IIP numbers and fear of rate hike by RBI Governor as mid-quarter review of monetary policy 2013-2014 is scheduled on 18th Dec.

Industrial production, represented by IIP, contracted more than forecast to negative 1.8% in October as against market expectation of negative 1.2%. In September, IIP grew at 2%. On the other hand, consumer price inflation rose further in November 2013 to 11.24% from revised 10.17% in October. At 11.24%, retail inflation was sharply higher than market expectations of 10%. CPI inflation for October has been revised upward from earlier estimate of 10.1%.

All the NCX sectoral indices closed into red and CNX PSU Bank index was the top loser by 2.49% followed by BankNifty(2.31%) and CNX Finance(2.22%)

In Nifty50 stocks, Tatamotor was the major gainer by 2.73% and closed at 370.3 whereas JPAssociat was the top loser by 5.26% and closed at 51.35.

JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and ICICIbank by the traded value on NSE.

Advance decline ratio was negative at 3.93 : 1 as 712 stocks declined and just 181 gained today on NSE.

   Mr.Rajan said economic growth was weak and inflation was high, which was a cause for concern. Both monetary and fiscal policies were essential to tackle inflationary pressures, he said. Regarding the fiscal policy, Rajan said the Finance Minister had laid down a road map that is expected to keep the fiscal situation under control. The government's fiscal deficit target is 4.8 per cent of GDP in this financial year. Aligning diesel prices with international rates would definitely control the fiscal deficit, the Governor said. "In the short term, hiking diesel prices will have an inflationary impact. But in the long run, this will lead to deficit reduction," he observed. 

Nifty Outlook :

Spot Nifty has given a negative closing on weekly basis even after making new high of 6415.25 on the 1st day of the week. Now Nifty should sustain above 6140 or give close above the level for the next week to continue this uptrend. Market will be volatile and the movement will be depend on RBI mid quarter policy outcome and Tapering in bond purchase in the U.S. and definitely this will direct the market in coming weeks.

Immediate Support : 6140

Immediate Resistance : 6190

Nifty closed positive 1st time after 3rd Nov.2013 on lower CAD estimates by Mr.R Rajan

    Guidance on lower CAD at around $56 Billions this year by the Governor Mr.R. Rajan yesterday, pulled Indian markets to close with a positive note after getting beaten 7 sessions consecutively. 

    Nifty closed positive for the first time after 3rd Nov.2013. Nifty opened with a gap up and touched a high of 6101.65 but inflation data impacted and reduced the gains. Nifty closed at 6056.15 adding 66.55 points to it's last closing, 5989.60. Sensex gained 199.04 points to settle at 20393.44. 

    All the sectoral indices gained today except CNX Pharma Index.CNX Auto was the top gainer by 3% followed by Banknifty, CNXRealty, CNX PSUBanks, CNX Infra & CNX Finance which rose by more than 2%. CNX pharma was down by 0.76%.

In Nifty50 stocks, Axisbank was the top gainer by 6.06% rise which closed at 1093.05. CoalIndia was the top loser by 3.54%, closed at 275. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and Tatasteel by the  traded value today on NSE.

    October WPI inflation rose to 7 percent, from September's 6.46 percent. Meanwhile, the August WPI inflation has been revised upwards to 6.99 percent from a provisional figure of 6.1 percent, following which bond yields moved up.   The October number is at its highest level since February. 

Onions continue to cause the largest dent even though food articles inflation came off to 18.19 percent from 18.40 percent in the previous month. 

    Manufacturing products, which occupy largest share in the inflationary basket, jumped to 2.50 percent versus 2.03 percent month-on-month. While non-food articles index moved down slightly, the core inflation rose to 2.6 percent from 

2.1 percent in the previous month.

Nifty Outlook :

As stated into earlier blog, breaching a level of 6160 was considered negative for a short term and we have seen more than 5% fall from it's highest closing of 6317.35 to yesterday's closing of 5989.6.

Now 5900 to 5890 will be considered as a good support level if market wants to sustain in the bull run.Again 6170-6190 would be major resistance zone to sustain above.

Important Support : 5970 / 5910

Important Resistance : 6140 / 6190

Report of the meeting held on 13th Nov.2013 by Mr.R.Rajan
MUMBAI: Seeking to calm currency markets, the Reserve Bank today said the current account deficit in 2013-14 will be $ 56 billion-- much lower than the quantum projected earlier-- and there is no fundamental reason for rupee depreciation. "Our estimates now is that CAD this year will be $ 56 billion, less than 3 per cent of GDP and $ 32 billion less than last year.... Of course, some of that compression comes of our strong measures to curb gold import," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said at a hurriedly called press conference.
The current account deficit (CAD), which is the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign exchange, touched an all-time high of $ 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of the GDP in 2012-13. Earlier, the government had projected the CAD in the current fiscal at $ 70 billion, which was revised downwards to $ 60 billion by Finance Minister P Chidambaram on back of declining gold imports and recovery in exports. Referring to the recent decline in the value of rupee, the RBI chief said there is "no fundamental reason for volatility in the exchange rate". 
Continuing its slide for the sixth straight day, the rupee lost 17 paise to trade at a fresh two-month low of 63.88 in early trade on strong dollar demand from importers.
Rajan further said RBI was weighing various options to contain exchange rate volatility and would come out with 'appropriate' steps in the future.

Sensex recorded a new high.Closed at highest ever level along with Nifty 6307.2

Sensex hit a new high of 21293.88 and closed at 21196.81 gaining 32.29 points where as spot Nifty closed at record high at 6307.2 but failed to cross it's previous high of 6357.1 made on 8th Jan 2008. Today, Nifty gained just 8.05 points after touching 6332.6. 
Among CNX sectoral indices, CNX PSU Bank index gained the most by 4.57% whereas CNX FMCG was the top loser by 1.26%
In Nifty50 stocks, IDFC gained the most by 6.48% and closed at 112.6. Top loser was Powergrid which lost 3.41% and ended at 97.85.
Advance/Decline ratio was positive by 2.06 : 1 as 604 stocks gained and 292 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

Foreign investors bought Indian shares worth 18.75 billion rupees on Thursday, their biggest single day purchase since May 21, remaining net buyers for a 20th consecutive session, bringing their total buying to nearly 181.92 billion rupees during that period.

Nifty November series has maintained the premium of nearly 50 points. Technically speaking, spot Nifty should hold 6340 level for consecutive 2-3 sessions for more bull run. But an opportunity rises if Nifty corrects to 6150 level thereafter. Avoid short selling but buy in dips considering 6110 as a closing stop.

Important Support : 6280

Importance Resistance : 6370

Special session on Sunday, 3rd Nov. from 1815 to 1930 hours in Equity and from 1800 to 2000 hours for MCX & NCDEX.

SENSEX CLOSED AT ALL TIME HIGH with a record high turnover of Rs.500 crores.

Spot Nifty hit 6300 first time after Nov.2010 and with record highest turnover of Rs.5000000000000. PSU Banks were the major lead engines. Sensex closed at an all time high but failed to cross an all time high. Special trading session on Sunday, 3rd Nov.2013 from 18:15 to 19:30.

Nifty at 35 months' high, hit 6200 mark and Sensex near 21000.

All round buying seen in market and market soared to indicate to touch its new highs. Nifty hit 6201.45 but closed at 6189.35, jumped 2.37% or 143.5 points; a high of 35 months, first time after 11 Nov 2010. Sensex zoomed 467.38 points to close at 20882.89. All the CNX sectoral indices closed into positive. Banknifty was the highest gainer by 3.95% rise followed by CNX Finance(3.54%), Metal(3.34%) amd Realty(3.04%).
In Nifty50 stocks, Bajaj-Auto was the only loser by 0.02%, closed at 2152.95 and Indusindbk gained the most by 6.39% to close at 414. Advance/Decline ratio was positive at 1.66 : 1 as 727 stocks gained and 437 stocks declined today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

Nifty gained 93.15 points wow basis. Technically, spot Nifty has a resistance around 6220-6230 in the coming week and if sustains above, may touch 6370 in coming weeks but its too bold to state as Federal Bank meeting, RBI policy and Oct month contract expiry will be laid down on 30th and 31st. Consider 6030-6020 is the strong closing basis support level to hold long in Nifty.
Important Resistance : 6230 / 6370
Important Support : 6120 / 6030

Can anyone think to buy these stocks in near future ?

Can anyone think to buy these stocks in near future ? 

Technically, STC strictly above 148 or corrects upto 120-125 and MMTC above 51.5(closing).

STC India : Life Time High 1661.45(16/11/2007)
Year High : 262.85(09/10/2012), Year Low 71.05(06/08/2013)
State Trading Corporation of India Ltd is an international trading company owned by Government of India. The company is involved in the export, import and domestic trading of a range of products, both agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. They exports foodgrain, castor oil, coffee, cashew and tea and imports bullion, vanaspati and edible oils, pulses, hydro-carbons, metals and minerals and fertilizers. The company has one subsidiary, namely STCL Ltd (formerly known as Spice Trading Corporation of India Ltd). State Trading Corporation of India Ltd was incorporated in the year 1956. During the year early years, the company dealt with the East European countries, but now they trade with almost all the countries of the world. The company was developed vast expertise in handling bulk international trade. During the year 1994-95, the company started trading items rice, wheat, coffee, Indian-made foreign liquor, sandalwood and oil and during the year 1995-96, they entered into new area of business like direct import of fertilisers, non-ferrous metals and kerosene oil. In domestic trading, they expanded their activities in areas like rice, wheat, coffee, cashew, tobacco and rubber. During the year 2001-02, the company entered into sugar export business after a gap of two years and exported sugar Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Sudan. During the year 2002-03, the company's entire shareholding in Tea Trading Corporation of India Ltd was transferred to Projects & Equipment Corporation, a public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Commerce, at a notional price of Re 1 with effect from April 28, 2003. During the year 2003-04, the company signed a MoU with India Household and Healthcare Ltd, the sole licensee LG Care, Korea in India, in which the company imports LG Care, FMCG products like detergents, soaps, shampoos, tooth pastes, cleaning products, hair gels etc at different ports for distribution all over India by IHHL. During the year 2004-05, the company singed a MoU with Mysore Minerals Ltd for export of iron ore fines on 50:50 profit sharing basis. Also, the company forayed into import of FMCG Goods and IT products. During this period, the company launched retail sale pf imported gold coins in denominations of 5 gm and 10 gm from their corporate office building at New Delhi. During the year 2005-06, the company entered into domestic supply of various raw materials such as iron ore, steel, coke, chemicals, etc. they executed the highest ever contract (Rs 800 crore) for supply of 1.9 million MTs of thermal coal to NTPC during the year. The company also entered into oilseeds market and purchased soyabean and mustard seeds worth Rs 29 crore. The Corporation also procured, for the first time, about 10,000 MT of castor seeds valuing Rs 15 crore for sale in the domestic market. During the year 2007-08, the company signed an offset agreement with CFM, Boeing and GE for monitoring offset obligation of USD 69 million, 1.25 billion and 100 million respectively. They acquired a plot of land at Paradip port for facilitating iron ore exports a plot of land at Paradip port for facilitating iron ore exports and also applied for allotment of plot at Haldia Port. The company started tea operations in Nilgiri district of Tamil Nadu. They also launched domestic sale of tea in own brand 'Tohfa' to Gujarat State Civil Supplies Corporation for supply through PDS. During this period, the company signed a MoU with company specializing in Research & Development activities on improving the yield of Jatropha plants for production of bio-diesel. The company is in the processof starting trial cultivation of bio-engineered, high yielding of jatropha in Namibia on an area of about 25 hectares. They are in talks to grow crop in Indonesia as part of a move to raise output of the bio-diesel feedstock. The company got second rank among trading companies of India and achieved first runner up position in the Multi Category sector under the Large exporters' category for the D&B-ECGC Indian Exporters' Excellence Awards. The company was selected for MoU Excellence Award for the year 2006-07 by the Department of Public Enterprises. Also, the company was awarded 'International Trade House of the year Award (2007-08)' sponsored jointly by DHL and CNBC TV18. The company through their subsidiary STCL Ltd set up a Chilli Processing plant at Byadagi in Karnataka. They also set up two more plants for pepper processing and Chilli Sterlisation in Siddapur, Karnataka and Chhindawara, Madhya Pradesh respectively. The company in a joint venture with NAFED and STCL Ltd is setting up a Food Testing Laboratory at Chindwara in Madhya Pradesh. 


MMTC : Life Time High 1965(1/01/2010)
Year High : 776.8(02/11/2012), Year Low 37.15(05/08/2013)
MMTC Limited (MMTC) is one of the two highest foreign exchange earners for India and a leading international trading company was incorporated on 26th September 1963. A 'Five Star Export House' status company is engaged in trading of Minerals, Precious Metals, Metals, Coal & Hydro Carbons, Fertilizers and Agro products. MMTC's diverse trade activities encompass Third Country Trade, Joint Ventures and Link Deals, all modern day tools of international trading. The Company has vast international trade network, which includes a wholly owned international subsidiary in Singapore, also spans almost in all countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and Americas. The Company had commenced its operation on 1st October of the incorporation year itself. MMTC made a foray into European market with the exports of one lakh tonnes of iron ore to Slovakia and Romania in the year of 1994. Also in the same year, the company had commenced import of gold and silver against special import license for supply to the customers in the domestic area. The wholly owned subsidiary MMTC Transnational Pte Ltd, Singapore was incorporated under the control of company in the year 1994 itself. During the year 1995, MMTC opened a duty-free jewellery show room at Sahar International Port and a Memorandum of Understanding was signed with the government of Orissa for development of existing Gopalpur minor port into a all-weather, deep water and direct berthing port. In the same year, Board for Industrial & Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) had approved the scheme of merger-cum-amalgamation of Mica Trading Corporation of India Limited (MITCO) with MMTC. From the year 1996 onwards, the company started to import the Chemical items and Homeopathic Medicines. MMTC had signed a MoU with the Department of Commerce under Ministry of Commerce and Industry during the year 2001 for its various applications. The Company had opened a new outlet at Thiruvananthapuram as a duty free business in the year of 2002 and also in the same year unveiled a new line of silverware, Sanchi-Silver in Style. During the year 2003, MMTC had acquired Rs. 800 crore deals from Japanese and South Korean companies for the supply of iron ore. In the identical year of 2003, the joint venture with the Orissa government namely Neelchal Ispat Nigam Ltd was emerged as the second largest exporter of pig iron from the country. The Company was ranked in Trading Sector by Business Standard in their publication BS 1000 'India's Corporate Giants' released in December 2006 and also noted as Top Company in the trading sector for the D&B by coveted American Express Corporate Award 2006. MMTC bagged a gold trophy for top Exporter for the Year 2006-07 in Merchant Exporter category by Engineering Export Promotion Council of India (EEPC) and also CAPEXIL highest export award for highest export of minerals for the year 2006-07, (16th time in a row). The 15 MW wind farms of the company were commissioned in March of the year 2007 at Karnataka. In The year 2007, MMTC had received government approval for acquiring an equity stake in the consortium, which has undertaken the project for construction of a permanent iron ore-loading berth at Ennore to decongest Chennai port. Aiming at diversification and with a view to add value to its existing trading operations, the company has undertaken various strategic initiatives during the year 2007-08 following public- private partnership route, effectively integrating vertically, both backwards and forwards, to encompass the entire gamut of the product process starting from the stage of manufacture and ending with distribution to the ultimate consumer. The Company had inked an agreement with Swiss metal company PAMP to set up a gold refinery in Sohna during March of the year 2008.

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Market ended flat with low volumes, eyeing on Q2 results starting next week

Market was flat with low volumes today. Nifty tested 5950 in the day trade but could not sustain and closed at 5907.3 with marginal loss of 2.4 points. Sensex gained by just 13.88 points to close at 19915.95. Market is concerned about the Q2 results' session starting by next Friday with the IT giant Infy.
Among CNX sectoral indices, CNX Realty was the top gainer by 1.62% whereas CNX PSU Bank was the top loser by 0.56% today. In Nifty stocks, Hindalco was the top gainer by 2.47% and closed at 118.4. DrReddy was the top loser, dropped by 2.47% and closed at 2369.85. Advance/Decline ratio bent over on negative side as 443 stocks declined and 402 gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook : Nifty touched 5700 in this week and bounced nearly 250 points thereafter. Q2 results session will start by IT giant, Infy which will announce their results on Friday,11th. Very important, the US$/INR have a strong support around 60.4-61 and from where it may bounce back, considering all these factors, market will be stuffed with a high volatility in coming weeks.
Important Support : 5720/ 5590
Important Resistance : 5950/ 6020

Calm before a twister ?

After nearly 6200 points' volatility in last couple of months, market remained lackluster this week. Today, Sensex closed at 19710.04 with 183.81 points down and Nifty closed at 5833.20, down by 49.05 points.
Among CNX Sectoral Indices, just three were into positive and CNX IT gained the most by just 0.12%. Top loser was CNX PSU Bank index by the 2.08%. In Nifty50 stocks, BPCL was the top gainer by 6.03% and closed at 327.85 and BHEL was the top loser by 5.61% which closed at 142.3. JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and McDowell-n by the traded value. Advance/Decline ratio was negative as 646 stocks turned to red and 520 were in green territory.

Nifty Outlook :

As stated in last week's blog, Nifty corrected nearly 2% after breaking the support level of 5930. Now we must consider the chances to test 5680 and 5460 levels in worst scenario if Nifty could not hold and sustain above 5770. Second quarter results will decide the trend more specifically in coming weeks.
Important Support : 5770
Important Resistance : 5995

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RBI hiked REPO Rate by 0.25%.. RBI governership not meant to win Facebook likes..said Rajan. Nifty managed to close above 6000 mark on weekly basis

20th Sep.2013

Sell off ignited by Mr.Rajan through his debut monetary policy announced today. The central bank has hiked repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 percent, but the bank left cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4 percent though the minimum CRR requirement is cut from 99 percent to 95 percent. A very volatile session witnessed more than 600 points' nose down into Sensex after policy announcement and recovered 200 points in the last session. Nifty lost 103.45 points and maintained to close above 6000 mark at 6012.1 and Sensex closed at 20263.71, down by 382.93  points.

All sectoral indices on NSE closed into negative except CNX Pharma which gained 0.2%. CNX Realty was the biggest loser by 7.47% followed by CNX PSU Banks (4.35%) and Banknifty (4.14%).

In Nifty50 stocks, Relinfra was the top gainer by 5.16%, closed at 417.75 whereas DLF tumbled the most by 11.99 and closed at 150.85.

JPAssociat was the turnover topper by the traded quantity and HDFC by the traded value on NSE. Advance/Decline ratio was negative at 2.41 : 1 as 626 stocks declined and 260 stocks gained today on NSE.

Nifty Outlook :

In this week, Nifty traveled from 5798.15 to 6142.5 because of two major events one is international and another is domestic. India Volatility Index rose from 4.78% to 11.52% in a less than a week.(Today's data not considered). So there is a bigger room to play on the bourses. Nifty likely to wander in between 5700 level to 6230 with a buy in dip attitude subject to close above 5930 targeting new high.

Imortant support :  5930

Important resistance : 6090/6145

What is MSF(Marginal Standing Facility) ?

It is the rate at which scheduled banks could borrow funds overnight from the RBI against approved Govt securities. Now since today which is reduced by 0.75%  and the minimum daily CRR balance that banks have to maintain to 95% of the requirement.

Perfectly spoken by the Governor:

“Some of the actions I take will not be popular. The Governorship of the central bank is not meant to win one votes or Facebook “likes.” Rajan, 50, addressed the media with a prepared statement in which he laid out a detailed road map for his innings in the short term, which he called a “big initial package.” “Our task today is to build a bridge to the future, over the stormy waves produced by global financial markets,” he said. Rajan also cited Rudyard Kipling while stating his intent to do the right thing, even amid criticism. “But I hope to do the right thing, no matter what the criticism, even while looking to learn from the criticism,” Rajan said. “Rudyard Kipling put it better when he mused about the requirements of an ideal central banker in his poem ‘If’: If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too: Kipling’s reference to “men” only dates these lines, but his words are clear.”